Clubs will today find out what compensation the'll receive, but St Kilda shouldn't be expecting the same kind of deal for Brendon Goddard that the expansion that clubs received during expansion club raids. Picture: George Salpigtidis Source: Herald Sun
AT ABOUT 6pm today, as traditional Friday drinks kick off across town, the AFL will quietly release one of its most contentious media statements of the year.
Finally, after a fortnight of speculation, the league is set to announce compensation for clubs suffering a "net loss" under free agency.
The league has strongly indicated the picks coming back in return will not be as generous as the compo for uncontracted players lost to expansion clubs.
That means St Kilda has no hope of picking up two first-round picks a la Tom Scully even though Brendon Goddard is a proven No.1 draft pick himself.
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Goddard, surely, will be deemed worth one first-round pick - effectively pick No.13, directly following the the first-round pick the Saints originally held.
From there, it gets messy. Salary cap watchdog Ken Wood, very much the compo master, will have his work cut out.
Wood, who calls in advice as required, has five compo options - first round, end of first round, second round, end of second round and third round.
The so-called formula takes into account the age of the player, the base value and additional services agreements attached to a departing player's new deal and other benefits such as cars, flights and accommodation.
But no matter how the league spins it, there will still be a level of subjectivity.
Melbourne looms as the most interesting scenario. It has lost Brent Moloney and Jared Rivers, yet gained Shannon Byrnes from Geelong.
How does Wood weigh up Melbourne's net loss? Perhaps an end of second round pick for Rivers and a third rounder for Moloney, taking into account the pick-up of Byrnes.
Geelong will surely receive nothing in return for Byrnes now it has nabbed Rivers as a free agent. Wood must see it as all square, even if in reality the Cats are ahead in the Rivers/Byrnes switch.
Port Adelaide has lost Danyle Pearce to Fremantle and Troy Chaplin to Richmond and traded for Angus Monfries so its compo would not be diluted.
The AFL yesterday clarified that it would look at the Power scenario on a player-by-player basis, meaning Wood will not determine losing the pair combined is worth one first-round pick.
He will instead come up with individual picks for both, probably either second-round or end of second-round picks.
Adelaide will rejoice when it receives a third-round pick for Chris Knights, a free agent it couldn't find room for in its team anyway.
Hawthorn, too, will gleefully take a third rounder for Tom Murphy, a fringe player.
West Coast will no doubt be hoping for a second-round pick for Quentin Lynch, but his age (30) might count against that. End of second-round, or a third-rounder seems more fitting for another player who was very much on the fringe.
The league is determined to release its compo findings tonight, even if a deal goes through five minutes before the 5pm deadline, knowing clubs are desperate to see where they sit ahead of a weekend of negotiations.
The mysterious Wood will be front and square like never before.
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